Indonesia prepares to carry out B40 in January

Because case, rates might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke states

B40 will need extra 3 mln loads feedstock, GAPKI says

Malaysia palm oil standard at greatest considering that mid-2022

India may withdraw import tax hike amidst inflation, Mistry says

(Adds expert comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard price)

By Bernadette Christina

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recover in 2025 after an expected drop this year, however costs are expected to remain raised due to planned growth of the country's biodiesel required, market experts said.

The palm oil criteria price in Malaysia has increased more than 35% this year, raised by slow output and Indonesia's plan to increase the necessary domestic biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to decrease fuel imports.

Palm oil output next year in top producer Indonesia is anticipated to recover by 1.5 million metric tons compared to an approximated drop of simply over a million heaps this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.

Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, said he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million heaps next year after a 2.5 million ton drop in 2024.

While Indonesia's output is forecast to improve, provide from somewhere else and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening.

Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip a little next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million heaps in 2024.

"We would need a healing in palm in 2025 since combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are decreasing," Mielke stated.

'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE

The cost rise in palm oil in the previous seven weeks has been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke stated, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.

The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said additional feedstock of around 3 million loads will be needed for B40 implementation, wearing down export supply.

The present palm oil premium has currently triggered palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke added.

Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric load in 2025, McGill of Glenauk estimated.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the highest because mid-2022.

"Sentiment right now is red-hot and exceptionally bullish, we need to beware," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods business Godrej International.

He anticipated the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above till June 2025.

Mielke and Mistry urged Indonesia to

think about delaying

B40 execution on issue about its influence on food consumers.

Meanwhile, Mistry expected leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its

import task hike

enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by John Mair, Jane Merriman and Daren Butler)